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1.
Front Public Health ; 12: 1360372, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38628848

RESUMO

Background: Estimating the global influenza burden in terms of hospitalization and death is important for optimizing prevention policies. Identifying risk factors for mortality allows for the design of strategies tailored to groups at the highest risk. This study aims to (a) describe the clinical characteristics of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of influenza over five flu seasons (2016-2017 to 2020-2021), (b) assess the associated morbidity (hospitalization rates and ICU admissions rate), mortality and cost of influenza hospitalizations in different age groups and (c) analyze the risk factors for mortality. Methods: This retrospective study included all hospital admissions with a diagnosis of influenza in Spain for five influenza seasons. Data were extracted from the Spanish National Surveillance System for Hospital Data from 1 July 2016 to 30 June 2021. We identified cases coded as having influenza as a primary or secondary diagnosis (International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, J09-J11). The hospitalization rate was calculated relative to the general population. Independent predictors of mortality were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Results: Over the five seasons, there were 127,160 hospitalizations with a diagnosis of influenza. The mean influenza hospitalization rate varied from 5/100,000 in 2020-2021 (COVID-19 pandemic) to 92.9/100,000 in 2017-2018. The proportion of influenza hospitalizations with ICU admission was 7.4% and was highest in people aged 40-59 years (13.9%). The case fatality rate was 5.8% overall and 9.4% in those aged 80 years or older. Median length of stay was 5 days (and 6 days in the oldest age group). In the multivariable analysis, independent risk factors for mortality were male sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.08-1.20), age (<5 years: OR 1; 5-19 years: OR 2.02, 95%CI 1.17-3.49; 20-39 years: OR 4.11, 95% CI 2.67-6.32; 40-59 years: OR 8.15, 95% CI 5.60-11.87; 60-79 years: OR 15.10, 95% CI 10.44-21.84; ≥80 years: OR 33.41, 95% CI 23.10-48.34), neurological disorder (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.83-2.11), heart failure (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.74-1.96), chronic kidney disease (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.25-1.41), chronic liver disease (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.68-3.27), cancer (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.48-2.24), coinfection with SARS-CoV2 (OR 3.17, 95% CI 2.34-4.28), influenza pneumonia (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.66-1.86) and admission to intensive care (OR 7.81, 95% CI 7.31-8.36). Conclusion: Influenza entails a major public health burden. People aged over 60-and especially those over 80-show the longest hospital stays. Age is also the most significant risk factor for mortality, along with certain associated comorbidities.


Assuntos
Influenza Humana , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Feminino , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Espanha/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Pandemias , RNA Viral , Hospitalização , Fatores de Risco
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 2024 Apr 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38630638

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs) in health care workers (HCWs) can result in morbidity and mortality and cause significant disruptions to health care services, patients and visitors as well as an added burden on the health system. This scoping review is aimed to describe the epidemiology of VPD outbreaks in HCW, caused by diseases which are prevented by the ten vaccines recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for HCWs. METHODS: In April 2022 CINAHL, MEDLINE, Global Health and EMBASE were searched for all articles reporting on VPD outbreaks in HCWs since the year 2000. Articles were included regardless of language and study type. Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of VPD outbreaks were described. RESULTS: Our search found 9363 articles, of which 216 met inclusion criteria. Studies describing six of the ten VPDs were found: influenza, measles, varicella, tuberculosis, pertussis and rubella. Most articles (93%) were from high- and upper middle-income countries. While most outbreaks occurred in hospitals, several influenza outbreaks were reported in long term care facilities. Based on available data, vaccination rates amongst HCWs were rarely reported. CONCLUSION: We describe several VPD outbreaks in HCWs from 2000 to April 2022. The review emphasises the need to understand the factors influencing outbreaks in HCWs and highlight importance of vaccination amongst HCWs.

3.
J Pak Med Assoc ; 74(3): 544-548, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38591294

RESUMO

In the past two decades, Pakistan has faced multiple human immunodeficiency virus outbreaks, with Larkana appearing to be the hub of such outbreaks. While the previous Larkana outbreaks happened in high-risk populations, the alarming outbreak in 2019 occurred in a low-risk paediatric population, raising several concerning questions. Human immunodeficiency virus infections spilling into the general population is indicative of a steady increase in the number of cases, and the failure of control strategies to stem the concentrated epidemic from evolving. Although several causative factors have been identified from previous outbreaks, the one that occurred in 2019 may have been influenced by an additional, hitherto unexplored factor; child sexual abuse. The current narrative review was planned to summarise human immunodeficiency virus risk factors and causes identified in previous Larkana epidemics, to explore potential reasons for the outbreaks in children, and to discuss possible steps needed for stemming human immunodeficiency virus outbreaks in Pakistan.


Assuntos
Infecções por HIV , HIV , Criança , Humanos , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Fatores de Risco
4.
J Med Virol ; 96(4): e29602, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38597349

RESUMO

China experienced severe epidemics of multiple respiratory pathogens in 2023 after lifting "Zero-COVID" policy. The present study aims to investigate the changing circulation and infection patterns of respiratory pathogens in 2023. The 160 436 laboratory results of influenza virus and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) from February 2020 to December 2023, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from June 2020 to December 2023, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, adenovirus, and human rhinovirus from January 2023 to December 2023 were analyzed. We observed the alternating epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus (IAV), as well as the out-of-season epidemic of RSV during the spring and summer of 2023. Cocirculation of multiple respiratory pathogens was observed during the autumn and winter of 2023. The susceptible age range of RSV in this winter epidemic (10.5, interquartile range [IQR]: 5-30) was significantly higher than previously (4, IQR: 3-34). The coinfection rate of IAV and RSV in this winter epidemic (0.695%) was significantly higher than that of the last cocirculation period (0.027%) (p < 0.001). Similar trend was also found in the coinfection of IAV and SARS-CoV-2. The present study observed the cocirculation of multiple respiratory pathogens, changing age range of susceptible population, and increasing coinfection rates during the autumn and winter of 2023, in Beijing, China.


Assuntos
Coinfecção , Vírus da Influenza A , Influenza Humana , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial , Vírus Sincicial Respiratório Humano , Infecções Respiratórias , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Pequim/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Coinfecção/epidemiologia , China/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial/epidemiologia
5.
Int J Infect Dis ; : 107052, 2024 Apr 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38636684

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed respiratory viruses' epidemiology due to non-pharmaceutical interventions and possible viral interactions. This study investigates whether the circulation patterns of respiratory viruses have returned to pre-pandemic norms by comparing their peak timing and duration during the first three SARS-CoV-2 seasons to pre-pandemic times. METHODS: GISRS data from 194 countries (2014-2023) was analyzed for epidemic peak timing and duration, focusing on pre-pandemic and pandemic periods across both hemispheres and the intertropical belt. Analysis was restricted to countries meeting specific data thresholds to ensure robustness. RESULTS: In 2022/23, the Northern hemisphere experienced earlier influenza and RSV peaks by 1.9 months (p<0.001). The duration of influenza epidemics increased by 2.2 weeks (p<0.001), with RSV showing a similar trend. The Southern hemisphere's influenza peak shift was not significant (p=0.437). Intertropical regions presented no substantial change in peak timing but experienced a significant reduction in duration for hMPV and adenovirus (7.2 and 6.5 weeks shorter, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic altered the typical patterns of influenza and RSV, with earlier peaks in 2022 in temperate areas. These findings highlight the importance of robust surveillance data to inform public health strategies on evolving viral dynamics in the years to come.

6.
Int J Mol Sci ; 25(7)2024 Mar 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38612429

RESUMO

Norovirus (NoV) genogroup II, polymerase type P31, capsid genotype 4, Sydney_2012 variant (GII.P31/GII.4_Sydney_2012) has been circulating at high levels for over a decade, raising the question of whether this strain is undergoing molecular alterations without demonstrating a substantial phylogenetic difference. Here, we applied next-generation sequencing to learn more about the genetic diversity of 14 GII.P31/GII.4_Sydney_2012 strains that caused epidemics in a specific region of Japan, with 12 from Kyoto and 2 from Shizuoka, between 2012 and 2022, with an emphasis on amino acid (aa) differences in all three ORFs. We found numerous notable aa alterations in antigenic locations in the capsid region (ORF2) as well as in other ORFs. In all three ORFs, earlier strains (2013-2016) remained phylogenetically distinct from later strains (2019-2022). This research is expected to shed light on the evolutionary properties of dominating GII.P31/GII.4_Sydney_2012 strains, which could provide useful information for viral diarrhea prevention and treatment.


Assuntos
Evolução Molecular , Norovirus , Japão/epidemiologia , Filogenia , Evolução Biológica , Proteínas do Capsídeo/genética , Norovirus/genética
7.
Urologie ; 2024 Mar 18.
Artigo em Alemão | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38498152

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Which theoretical and practical competences do the urologic case histories of the Hippocratic Corpus convey? MATERIALS AND METHODS: The 431 Hippocratic case histories have been studied for reports and communication on diagnostic methods, treatment, and prognosis related to urologic diseases. RESULTS: Within the seven books of the Hippocratic Epidemics, a total of 69 patients with urologic symptoms are described; in 21 cases the urologic disease is dominant. The leading clinical signs were urine discoloration and urinary sediment, polyuria, testicular swelling and pain, hematuria, stranguria, anuria, and renal pain, the most frequent diseases were nephritis and urolithiasis. Most patients were men in juvenile and adult age; 33 sick persons are named. The statements of patients regarding the course of their illness were often sparse. Diagnostic tests were restricted to inspection and palpation. Otherwise, treatment was confined to conservative measures. The dietary decisions for treatment of nephritis were differentiated but nonuniform. CONCLUSION: The Hippocratic physician diagnosed and treated diseases of the urinary tract. Inflammatory conditions and traumatic lesions are described in detail. Highest priority was awarded to uroscopy. Nephritis was a widespread disorder und usually associated with other symptoms, above all fever. The urinary tract was often regarded as an indicator of physical and mental health. Conservative treatment measures dominate in the case reports.

8.
Trop Med Int Health ; 2024 Mar 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38481292

RESUMO

AIM: This study aimed to investigate the impact of communicable diseases with epidemic potential in complex emergency (CE) situations, focusing on the epidemiological profile of incidence and mortality and exploring underlying factors contributing to increased epidemic risks. METHODS: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Review (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines, we conducted a scoping review of articles published between 1990 and 2022. The search included terms related to complex emergencies, communicable diseases, outbreaks, and epidemics. We identified 92 epidemics related to CE occurring in 32 different countries. RESULTS: Communicable diseases like Shigellosis, Cholera, Measles, Meningococcal meningitis, Yellow Fever, and Malaria caused significant morbidity and mortality. Diarrhoeal diseases, particularly Cholera and Shigellosis, had the highest incidence rates. Shigella specifically had an incidence of 241.0 per 1000 (people at risk), with a mortality rate of 11.7 per 1000, while Cholera's incidence was 13.0 per 1000, with a mortality rate of 0.22 per 1000. Measles followed, with an incidence of 25.0 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.76 per 1000. Meningococcal Meningitis had an incidence rate of 1.3 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.13 per 1000. Despite their lower incidences, yellow fever at 0.8 per 1000 and malaria at 0.4 per 1000, their high case fatality rates of 20.1% and 0.4% remained concerning in CE. The qualitative synthesis reveals that factors such as water, sanitation, and hygiene, shelter and settlements, food and nutrition, and public health and healthcare in complex emergencies affect the risk of epidemics. CONCLUSION: Epidemics during complex emergencies could potentially lead to a public health crisis. Between 1990 and 2022, there have been no statistically significant changes in the trend of incidence, mortality, or fatality rates of epidemic diseases in CE. It is crucial to understand that all epidemics identified in CE are fundamentally preventable.

9.
BMC Infect Dis ; 24(1): 360, 2024 Mar 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38549076

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Since the early 1970s, cholera outbreaks have been a major public health burden in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Cholera cases have been reported in a quasi-continuous manner in certain lakeside areas in the Great Lakes Region. As these cholera-endemic health zones constitute a starting point for outbreaks and diffusion towards other at-risk areas, they play a major role in cholera dynamics in the country. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera hotspots and adjusting interventions accordingly thus reduces the disease burden in an efficient and cost-effective manner. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to describe the spatiotemporal dynamics of cholera in the DRC at the province level from 1973 to 1999. We then identified and classified cholera hotspots at the provincial and health zone levels from 2003 to 2022 and described the spatiotemporal evolution of hotspots. We also applied and compared three different classification methods to ensure that cholera hotspots are identified and classified according to the DRC context. RESULTS: According to all three methods, high-priority hotspots were concentrated in the eastern Great Lakes Region. Overall, hotspots largely remained unchanged over the course of the study period, although slight improvements were observed in some eastern hotspots, while other non-endemic areas in the west experienced an increase in cholera outbreaks. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) and the Department of Ecology and Infectious Disease Control (DEIDC) methods largely yielded similar results for the high-risk hotspots. However, the medium-priority hotspots identified by the GTFCC method were further sub-classified by the DEIDC method, thereby providing a more detailed ranking for priority targeting. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the findings of this comprehensive study shed light on the dynamics of cholera hotspots in the DRC from 1973 to 2022. These results may serve as an evidence-based foundation for public health officials and policymakers to improve the implementation of the Multisectoral Cholera Elimination Plan, guiding targeted interventions and resource allocation to mitigate the impact of cholera in vulnerable communities.


Assuntos
Cólera , Humanos , Cólera/epidemiologia , República Democrática do Congo/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Saúde Pública
11.
J Adolesc Health ; 2024 Mar 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38493399

RESUMO

PURPOSE: We aimed to assess levels of depression, anxiety, and resilience factors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in a school sample of adolescents. We also aimed to examine the compensatory and protective effects of individual, family, and school resilience factors on adolescent mental health. METHODS: We used fall 2019 and fall 2020 survey responses from a cluster randomized controlled trial implemented in 20 schools in a Midwestern county. The sample consisted of 3,085 responses from students in grades 5 and 6. Multilevel mixed-effects models with cluster robust standard errors were used to investigate the associations between exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic, mental health (anxiety, depression), and resilience factors (future orientation, family engagement, and having a caring school adult). RESULTS: Anxiety, but not depression, was higher in fall 2020 compared to fall 2019. Family engagement increased during the pandemic, while future orientation of the student body was lower during that time and the prevalence of having a caring adult at school was unchanged. A positive future orientation was associated with lower levels of anxiety and depression, while having a caring school adult was associated with lower depression. Adolescents with less positive future orientations, low family engagement, and no caring school adults experienced the greatest increases in anxiety. DISCUSSION: Positive future orientations, family engagement, and supportive nonparental adult relationships had compensatory and protective effects on adolescent mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adding these measures to the inventory of modifiable resilience factors during natural disasters may promote healthy adaptation among adolescents.

12.
Intern Emerg Med ; 19(2): 265-269, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38411858

RESUMO

The fight against obesity is largely based on recommendations about lifestyle and therapies to initiate weight loss and, hopefully, to achieve and maintain an ideal weight. The failure of this approach is witnessed by the steady increasing rates of obesity worldwide. Lifestyle modifications yield mild weight loss with poor results in the long-term. The pharmaceutical industry is engaged to produce the best anti-obesity drugs, and this market is projected to grow massively. Guidelines on pharmacological and surgical approach to obesity are continuously developed, taking into account that benefits are counterbalanced by high costs, are limited to the period of drug intake, and potential adverse effects are possible, such as pancreatitis, gastroparesis, and bowel obstruction. Meantime, people living with obesity might simply think that taking the "magic pill" or undergoing bariatric surgery can change their life. In the long term, this tendency might lead to scarce cost-effectiveness, increasing adverse effects and inequities in the most vulnerable age classes. Furthermore, the main actors responsible for generating an obesogenic world will continue undisturbed to produce negative effects. Obesity is not only generated from voluntary individual behaviors, and no guideline can truly counteract the detrimental effects of environmental factors driving the progressive rise of obesity globally. Unsustainable food production, packaging and marketing, environmental pollution, widely diffused endocrine disrupting chemicals, and climate change are largely neglected by health professionals and generate food insecurity and malnutrition. The complexity of obesity cannot be managed only pointing to individual responsibilities of people living with obesity. There is a missing link here, and this war cannot be won in the absence of effective primary prevention measures involving changes in food production and marketing, and decreased release of toxic chemicals into the environment.


Assuntos
Cirurgia Bariátrica , Obesidade , Humanos , Obesidade/complicações , Redução de Peso
13.
JMA J ; 7(1): 138-139, 2024 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38314406
14.
Afr J Reprod Health ; 28(1): 94-109, 2024 Feb 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38308556

RESUMO

The global disruption created by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in medical education and healthcare institutions is unparalleled. Consequently, it is essential to evaluate the usability of forms of educational technology and to identify their viability and suitability for medical education. The objective of the investigation was to present an assessment of the state of medical education during the COVID-19 epidemic and to identify the obstacles faced by educators while introducing online learning systems for medical students. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted with 200 medical students and 75 staff members from Saudi Arabia's University of Health. A descriptive method was used to focus on the mechanisms of analysis, foresight, and comprehension of reality. The most significant findings were the obstacles posed by instructors' most urgent requirements for educational technology training and its applications in order to activate distance education in medical education. In addition to a detailed description of the academic and technological concerns and obstacles encountered by students and faculty of health colleges during the pandemic, this report includes a discussion of the pandemic itself. Several prospective recommendations for the use of online and blended learning in health colleges post-pandemic were also made. Additionally, the requirement to activate learning via virtual professional learning groups.


La perturbation mondiale créée par la pandémie de maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) dans les établissements d'enseignement médical et de soins de santé est sans précédent. Par conséquent, il est essentiel d'évaluer l'utilisabilité des formes de technologie éducative et d'identifier leur viabilité et leur adéquation à l'enseignement médical. L'objectif de l'enquête était de présenter une évaluation de l'état de l'enseignement médical pendant l'épidémie de COVID-19 et d'identifier les obstacles rencontrés par les éducateurs lors de l'introduction de systèmes d'apprentissage en ligne pour les étudiants en médecine. Deux enquêtes transversales ont été menées auprès de 200 étudiants en médecine et de 75 membres du personnel de l'Université de la Santé d'Arabie Saoudite. Une méthode descriptive a été utilisée pour se concentrer sur les mécanismes d'analyse, de prospective et de compréhension de la réalité. Les résultats les plus significatifs ont été les obstacles posés par les besoins les plus urgents des instructeurs en matière de formation en technologie éducative et ses applications afin d'activer l'enseignement à distance en médecine. éducation. En plus d'une description détaillée des préoccupations et des obstacles académiques et technologiques rencontrés par les étudiants et les professeurs des collèges de santé pendant la pandémie, ce rapport comprend une discussion sur la pandémie elle-même. Plusieurs recommandations prospectives concernant l'utilisation de l'apprentissage en ligne et mixte dans les établissements de santé après la pandémie ont également été formulées. À cela s'ajoute l'obligation d'activer l'apprentissage via des groupes d'apprentissage professionnel virtuels.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Educação Médica , Estudantes de Medicina , Humanos , Estudos Transversais , Estudos Prospectivos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Tecnologia Educacional
15.
Infect Dis Model ; 9(2): 397-410, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38385016

RESUMO

This paper presents a comprehensive agent-based model for the spread of an infection in a network of cities. Directional mobility is defined between each two cities and can take different values. The work examines the role that such mobility levels play in containing the infection with various vaccination coverage and age distributions. The results indicate that mobility reduction is sufficient to control the disease under all circumstances and full lockdowns are not a necessity. It has to be reduced to different ratios depending on the vaccination level and age distribution. A key finding is that increasing vaccination coverage above a certain level does not affect the mobility suppression level required to control the infection anymore for the cases of young population and heterogeneous age distributions. By investigating several migration and commuting patterns, it is found that shutting mobility in a few local places is favored against reducing mobility over the entire country network. In addition, commuting -and not migration-influences the spread level of the infection. The work offers an exclusive combined network-based and agent-based model that makes use of randomly generated mobility matrices.

16.
Infect Dis Model ; 9(2): 411-436, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38385022

RESUMO

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework that integrates sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics has demonstrated powerful forecasting capability in previous works. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes. In this tutorial paper, we introduce and illustrate SubEpiPredict, a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time series data using an ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework. The toolbox can be used for model fitting, forecasting, and evaluation of model performance of the calibration and forecasting periods using metrics such as the weighted interval score (WIS). We also provide a detailed description of these methods including the concept of the n-sub-epidemic model, constructing ensemble forecasts from the top-ranking models, etc. For the illustration of the toolbox, we utilize publicly available daily COVID-19 death data at the national level for the United States. The MATLAB toolbox introduced in this paper can be very useful for a wider group of audiences, including policymakers, and can be easily utilized by those without extensive coding and modeling backgrounds.

17.
Epidemics ; 46: 100744, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38324970

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding the effectiveness of these interventions due to data quality issues, methodological challenges, and differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation of their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. METHODS: To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes the impact of NPIs and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted the model to comprehensive epidemiological data in France from March 2020 to October 2021. With the same model, we simulated scenarios of vaccine rollout. RESULTS: The first lockdown was the most effective, reducing transmission by 84 % (95 % confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished effectiveness (reduction of 74 % (69-77) and 11 % (9-18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew was more effective than one at 8 pm (68 % (66-69) vs. 48 % (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced transmission by 15 % (12-18). In a scenario without vaccines before November 2021, we predicted 159,000 or 168 % (95 % prediction interval (PI) 70-315) more deaths and 1,488,000 or 300 % (133-492) more hospitalizations. If a vaccine had been available after 100 days, over 71,000 deaths (16,507-204,249) and 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could have been averted. CONCLUSION: Our results highlight the substantial impact of NPIs, including lockdowns and curfews, in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate the value of the 100 days objective of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative for vaccine availability.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , SARS-CoV-2 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , França/epidemiologia
18.
Biostatistics ; 2024 Feb 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38423531

RESUMO

Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently, HIV interventions and policies have required more information at sub-national levels to support local planning, decision-making and resource allocation. Unfortunately, many areas lack sufficient data for deriving stable and reliable results, and this is a critical technical barrier to more stratified estimates. One solution is to borrow information from other areas within the same country. However, directly assuming hierarchical structures within the HIV dynamic models is complicated and computationally time-consuming. In this article, we propose a simple and innovative way to incorporate hierarchical information into the dynamical systems by using auxiliary data. The proposed method efficiently uses information from multiple areas within each country without increasing the computational burden. As a result, the new model improves predictive ability and uncertainty assessment.

19.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 30(3): 519-529, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38407230

RESUMO

Infectious disease outbreaks are associated with substantial stigma, which can have negative effects on affected persons and communities and on outbreak control. Thus, measuring stigma in a standardized and validated manner early in an outbreak is critical to disease control. We reviewed existing scales used to assess stigma during outbreaks. Our findings show that many different scales have been developed, but few have been used more than once, have been adequately validated, or have been tested in different disease and geographic contexts. We found that scales were usually developed too slowly to be informative early during an outbreak and were published a median of 2 years after the first case of an outbreak. A rigorously developed, transferable stigma scale is needed to assess and direct responses to stigma during infectious disease outbreaks.


Assuntos
Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Doenças Transmissíveis/diagnóstico , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Estigma Social
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